PFT TEN-PACK:  THE DIVISIONAL ROUND

Well, one out of four isn't bad.

Actually, it's pathetic.  A monkey with a glass eye could do better.

We got one lousy game right in the divisional round, picking the Panthers to beat the Bears.  Here's hoping that our ability to craft ten observations from the weekend that was will suck at least slightly less than our skills at selecting winners.

1.  Alexander Loses His Leverage.

The 2005 season was a dream come true for Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander.  In a contract year with a guarantee that the 'Hawks won't tie his hands via the franchise or transition tag, Alexander won the rushing title, set the single-season touchdown record, and hoisted the MVP hardware.

And as Alexander was racking up those numbers and awards, the front office watched and waited, afraid that giving Alexander a huge contract would knock the chip from his shoulder pads. 

But with true free agency only weeks away, Alexander's leverage was high and rising.  If he were to cap a career season with a run to Detroit, a Super Bowl win, and the Cadillac-ac-ac-ac-ac that goes with being named the game's MVP, he'd be in a position to get more coin from owner Paul Allen than he could with a ski mask, a gun, and a big white sack with a dollar sign on it.

But after Shaun's eggshell got popped by Redskins linebacker LaVar Arrington on Saturday, a big chunk of his leverage suddenly disappeared.

Why, you ask?  Because the Seahawks proved to themselves that they really don't need him.  Sure, they'd love to have him.  But if he wants a market-busting contract to stay in Seattle, the powers-that-be will be more inclined to say no.

Other teams who might have been piecing together an offer for Alexander might now be asking themselves whether his success was merely a byproduct of the Seahawks' overall performance this year, which features one of the best offensive lines in the league and a quarterback who quietly has joined the NFL's elite.

The bottom line is that running backs inching closer and closer to the age of 30 aren't going to get $15 million or more to sign.  Before Saturday, Alexander's stellar season might have persuaded one or more teams to make an exception to a trend that sees rookie running backs taken at the top of round one getting much more money than established star tailbacks can muster.  Today, he's in the same predicament as guys like Edgerrin James, whose past performance will do nothing to get him paid tomorrow.

2.  Tom Brady Is Human After All.

We were starting to think that he wasn't.  We were beginning to believe that he was Touchdown (Pass) Jesus. 

Unflappable.  Invincible.  Unbeatable.

That was before Saturday night, when Brady looked, for the first time ever in postseason play, like just another guy who couldn't figure out how to deal with the noise of playing on the road in January.

He also showed that, despite his skill at sliding in the pocket away from pressure, he's got the mobility of Michael Vick . . . when he was two.  And the Broncos took full advantage of it, getting bodies moving toward him faster than he could find his hot reads, forcing him into making premature throws and bad decisions.

The worst decision of all, of course, was the throw into coverage in the corner of the end zone on third and goal with the Pats down only by four.  Flushed out of the pocket by a blitz, Brady rushed the pass into a bad spot, and then could only watch as Champ Bailey took it to hizzy.  Almizzy.

Hey, we'd still rather have Brady on our team than most if not all of the other quarterbacks in the league.  And the loss might drive him to come back better than ever.  But for one night, and maybe in retrospect one night only, the Wizard of Oz looked a lot more like the confused old man behind the curtain.

3.  NFL Needs To Think Outside The Box.

In a weekend that featured an inexcusable amount of bad calls (more on that later), we've spotted a glitch that can only be fixed by hiring more zebras or by exploring ideas for weaving technology into the efforts to get things right.

We're not inclined to call the end result of the Champ Bailey interception return a bad call, although it probably was.  Careful study of the replay suggests that the ball crossed the plane of the end zone before going out of bounds (which would have given the Pats a first down on their own 20), but there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the call on the field, whichever way the call might have come down.

The bigger problem, in our view, is that the officials weren't in position to make the call, since they all were clustered at the other edge of the field at the beginning of the play.  As a result, no one was in the right spot to determine whether the ball crossed the white stripe on the side of the field before or after it crossed the white stripe across the front of the end zone.

So what can the NFL do?  One option would be to hire officials who are fast enough to get down the field so that they can make the right call on plays that involve a sudden and dramatic change in field position.  But since most of the guys possessing the speed to do that are, you know, pro athletes, it might be a little difficult to recruit them into a profession dominated by older men.

Another option would be to add another official to the crew and station him at the far end of the field behind the line of scrimmage, in the event that there is a turnover and a return.  (This would have helped in the detection of those three illegal blocks that fueled Nathan Vasher's 108-yard return of a missed field goal this year.)

The cheapest option, over the long haul, would be to develop a system for detecting whether the football enters the rectangle at either end of the field.  We're not sufficiently conversant with the techno-poopie to figure out what the instruments would be called, but we think that something could be put in the pylons, and something could be put in the ball, to detect whether the ball crossed the plane of the goal line.     

It's obvious to us that something needs to be done to ensure greater accuracy in the enforcement of rules when a long return of a missed field goal or turnover breaks out.  Even if only a couple of plays per year raise questions in this regard, they're usually pretty big plays.

4.  More Corroboration of Chad Incident.

Five days after we broke one of our most controversial stories ever, corroboration of our account continues to roll in -- even if credit for our work from the national media outlets has been relatively limited.

On Saturday night's pregame show, Boomer Esiason of CBS reiterated his belief that something went down between receiver Chad Johnson and coaches Hue Jackson and Marvin Lewis during halftime of last Sunday's wild card loss to the Steelers.  On Sunday, ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on the incident as if it were fact.

We've also gotten favorable treatment for the story in print.  Mark Curnutte of The Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote:  "Though Johnson called a news conference to deny anything happened, the report has gained increasing degrees of credibility with each passing day."  On Sunday, David Neal of The Miami Herald addressed the report and added that "[u]nlike most of its Internet peers and radio ramblers, profootballtalk.com has a respectable shooting percentage with rumor accuracy."

We realize that it's easy for the untrained eye to lump us in with the cacophony of smarmy blogs and sites written by folks with no real connections to the the sports they purport to cover.  But the Johnson story and its aftermath should confirm for all of the Doubting Thomi out there that we really do have a solid network of sources, and that we're not just making stuff up in the hopes of generating traffic and buzz. 

5.  Worst . . . Call . . . Ever.

We can't wait to hear what NFL director of officials Mike Pereira has to say on Total Access this week regarding the decision to overturn the fourth quarter interception by Steelers safety Troy Polamalu against the Colts, because no amount of polish can transform that turd into a Twinkie.

It was, by far, the worst call we'd ever seen in a playoff game, and we're now convinced that the NFL must make a dramatic change to a system that should be there to correct bad calls, not wipe out good ones

Remember, the standard is that calls get overturned only if there is indisputable visual evidence supporting a reversal.  So where in the hell was the indisputable proof that the Tazmanian Devil didn't gobble up that ball like it was a chicken made out of bubble gum with a stick of dynamite in it?

The proof wasn't there. 

So referee Pete Morelli will have a little 'splainin' to do to Pereira.  And we wouldn't be surprised to see him back next year, but without a white hat.

6.  Worst . . . Hair . . . Ever.

When we first saw Jimmy Johnson's new 'do on FOX this weekend, we assumed we'd just missed an old-fashioned noogie session between Johnson and Terry Bradshaw.  But then we learned that Johnson intentionally has configured his hair that way.

Yee-ikes.

Maybe Johnson is longing for his Super Bowl days, so he gave his stylist a picture of himself after he took a Gatorade bath and an Emmitt Smith scalp massage 13 years ago and said, "Make me look that all the time."

Regardless, middle aged men (and we're being charitable to Johnson with that term) aren't supposed to make fashion statements with their hair, especially in and around a testosterone-driven industry like pro football.

What's next, Jimmy?  A private screening of "Brokeback Mountain" for you and Howie? 

7.  What's Next for LaVar?

An interesting footnote to the Redskins' loss to the Seahawks is the future of linebacker LaVar Arrington.  Earlier this year, it was a foregone conclusion that the 'Skins wouldn't pick up a $6.5 million roster bonus owed to Arrington later this year, especially in the wake of a nasty grievance filed by Arrington against the team in which he claimed that the organization defrauded him out of another $6.5 million roster bonus by omitting it from the final draft of the contract, which his agents (the Postons) didn't read.

But there's reason to believe that a reconciliation is possible.  There's talk that Chargers Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman is thinking about parting ways with the Postons.  Merriman is an Arrington protege; indeed, the thinking is that Arrington influenced Merriman's decision to part ways with Gary Wichard after the 2005 draft.  So if Merriman is thinking about making a change, it's not a major leap of logic to conclude that his mentor might be, too.

And it might be the smartest move Arrington ever has made.  Not because the Postons have done a bad job on behalf (although we believe they have), but because the grievance against the Redskins created a rift with the Redskins that will make it virtually impossible for a deal to be struck in order to permit Arrington to remain a member of the team with a more realistic cap number for 2006.

8.  Peyton Shows His Naked Butt And Rectum.

We've long believed that Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is a big, bolted-neck phony.  He says and does all the right things, for the most part, when the cameras are on and folks are watching.  But it's our opinion that, in his heart, he's a spoiled brat who thinks he's better than everyone else.

Finally, he has given us something concrete on which to base these beliefs (apart from the allegations of Jamie Ann Naughright). 

Actually, he gave us two.

The first one came late in the third quarter of Sunday's loss to the Steelers.  Facing fourth and two from their own 36 and trailing 21-3, head coach Tony Dungy sent in the punt team.

And Manning sent them back.

It was one of the worst examples, in pro sports history, of disregard for the office of the head coach.  Dungy is the head coach, for crying out loud.  Manning is the quarterback.

Yeah, we know that most quarterbacks have the ability to call audibles.  But that's part of the authority that the head coach specifically has delegated to the quarterback.  No head coach ever has given the quarterback the power to decide whether to go for it on fourth down.

In this case, Manning showed that he regards himself as bigger than the coach -- and that's a big problem.

As one league insider explained to us on Sunday evening, too many players on that team genuinely love Dungy.  And Manning blatantly violated Dungy's role.  It could create serious problems in the locker room moving forward.

The second bit of evidence came after the game, when Manning tried to explain away his inability to get the passing game going by throwing his offensive linemen under the buffet table:  "I'm trying to be a good teammate here.  Let's just say we had some problems with protection."

Actually it was a slam on both the blockers and the coaching staff, since the coaches have a pretty big role in keeping the defenders out of the quarterback's face.

"This is on a new level," one league insider said.  "This guy is a selfish SOB."

Amen.

9.  More Bad Calls.

It really was a bad weekend for officiating.  The phantom pass interference call in the Pats-Broncos game.  The non-interference call in the Colts-Steelers game.  The reversal of the Polamalu pick.  The Bailey pick, run, and fumble. 

There were plenty of bad calls in the Panthers-Bears game, too.  In the first half, Bears corner Charles Tillman pulled a blatant horse collar on Panthers receiver Drew Carter, when Carter was well out of bounds.  The extra yardage likely would have resulted in a call on the next play other than a pass down the seam, which linebacker Brian Urlacher leaped and intercepted.

And on the Bears' final offensive play the clock was at double zero before the snap.  No whistle.  No flag.

But this one helped the Panthers, since the play that wasn't called dead resulted in a game-sealing interception.

Moving forward, we think the league needs to revisit the decision to appoint full crews to postseason games.  It might be a good idea to go back to the process of pasting together teams of all stars, based on how the individual officials graded out during the regular season.

10.  No Quarterback Controversy in Chicago.

On the same day that the Bears joined the Colts as the second and third franchises to lose a division-round game at home after a bye week (the only other team with more than one loss under such circumstances is the Chiefs, with three), the one thing that likely won't come out of the loss is a quarterback controversy in Chicago.

Yeah, Rex Grossman looked rattled and overmatched in his playoff debut.  But he's still a lot better than Kyle Orton.

It remains to be seen whether Grossman can stay healthy and get it done on a regular basis.  But the job clearly is Grossman's, and the future is still relatively bright for the Bears, even though they won't go nearly as far this year as they thought they would.

POSTED 5:36 p.m. EST, January 15, 2006

Oops.  Our piss-poor prognostication skills in playoff games could be influencing our analysis of information we're gathering from our sources regarding matters related to the ever-spinning coaching carousel.

Based on nuggets we picked up on Saturday, we concluded that the St. Louis Rams plan to pursue Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera as their next head coach, and that reports of an interest in Dolphins offensive coordinator Scott Linehan were aimed at squeezing Rivera's price tag down a bit.

We're now hearing that Linehan actually is a legitimate candidate for the job, due in large part to the fact that he can be gotten for a relatively small salary.

The thinking around the league is that some of the candidates out there are pricing themselves out of the market, and that teams are opting instead for guys who'll do the job for less money.

Still, we think that the doofi in the St. Lou-i front office will be driving the franchise even farther into the FieldTurf if they hire Linehan.  Really, why fire the Art Vandelay of the Greatest Show on Turf in favor of an offensive coordinator whose best year drawing up the O's was aided by the presence of a guy named Randy Moss?

The Rams need a defensive enema in order to get better.  The status quo there hasn't been working -- and hiring Linehan would be a big step backward.

Another factor helping Linehan's candidacy is the perception that he'll be a good soldier.  It's no secret that Martz and the front office had more than their fair share of friction, and if Linehan is happy to get a chance at a job he really shouldn't have he's less likely to poop on the hand that fed it to him.

It's the same dynamic that, in our opinion, helped persuade Packers G.M. Ted Thompson to hire Mike McCarthy.  Reaction around the league to that one has been decidedly negative, and we think that a similar outcry will be heard if/when the Rams introduce Linehan as their next field boss.

The injury report for the Indianapolis Colts now reads in part as follows:  "QUESTIONABLE:  CB Nick Harper (stuck like a pig in the kneecap)."

In a bizarre story that conjures memories of a 2003 incident involving Browns running back William Green, Harper was stabbed by his wife, Danniell.  She was jailed on Saturday night.

Earlier reports indicated that Harper had been injured in a car accident.  Harper has stitches in his knee and his status for Sunday's game is uncertain.

In June, Harper was arrested for battery after allegedly hitting his wife. 

Finally, and in response to various reader e-mails, the Harper incident isn't the legal problem to which we were referring in a Saturday night post.

KEEP AN EYE ON BIG BEN'S MOUTH

Every once in a while NFL teams discover a pre-snap tendency that proves to be a big benefit.  Several years back, there were reports of quarterback Jake Plummer licking his fingers before passing plays, as detected by an opposing defense.

It's not always a player or a coach who spots the habit.  We've heard that the late Mike Webster, a Hall of Famer with the Steelers, did something different with his hand on running plays and on passing plays.  A member of the chain gang, we're told, tipped the team off to the quirk.

Earlier this week we caught wind of a strong belief on the part of some fans that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger only uses his mouthpiece on passing plays.

We've done some poking around about this, and we've actually found some corroboration.  A review of the tape of last week's game at Cincinnati (performed at our request by sports director Joe Brocato of the local CBS affiliate, WDTV) was largely inconclusive, since the pre-snap shots don't always include a close up of the quarterback.  But Brocato spotted several occasions in which Roethlisberger left his mouthpiece out -- and on each such occasion the Steelers ran the ball.

We've gotten late word that Roethlisberger has been told about his possible tell.  It'll be interesting to see, then, if he deliberately leaves it out on passing plays in order to mess with the Colts' defense, if the Colts have spotted it.

Asked this morning whether we prefer our crow deep fried or barbequed, we opted to cover it in chocolate. 

Still tasted like chicken.

Anyway, we learned a valuable lesson on Saturday.  We grossly underestimated the value of home field advantage in the postseason.  Grossly.  There is, we now realize, a fundamental difference between the crowd during a same-old regularly season game and the rabid throng of painted faces during a win-or-go-home postseason contest.

And we suppose we've realized it in the past, but the power of the home crowd in January fades in the eleven intervening months.  So for Saturday's games, we allowed ourselves to pooh-pooh the potential influence of the paying patrons in Seattle and Denver. 

Man, were we wr-wr-wr-wr. . . .  Wr-wr-wr-wrong.

Especially as to the night game, in which the noise emanating from the stands of the venue named for an entity that no longer exists made Tom Brady look like Tommy Maddox.

So we're revising our prediction of a road-team sweep of the divisional round.  Partially.

First, the early game.  Pittsburgh at Indianapolis.

It pains us to pick against the Steelers.  We like the team.  We love Jerome Bettis.  He deserves a ring more than anyone else who has never won one, including the 'Burgh's own Dan Marino.

But the Colts are the best team in the league this year.  Period.  And with the Patriots out of the way (thanks to Indy's biatches from Colorado), the path to Detroit is paved, lined, and well-lighted.

Colts win, 31-17. 

And this time we hope we're wrong.

As to the late game, Carolina at Chicago, we've gone back and forth more than Rain Man in a room with recently rearranged furniture.  As of last night, we were leaning hard toward going with the home team.

But then it happened.  We'll admit that the thought came during Mass, while yours truly otherwise should have been listening to the homily.  But since the priest was talking about hearing God's voice, we'll conclude for now that the Big Referee in the Sky was trying to save us from the embarrassment of an 0-4 weekend.

The Panthers went into the Meadowlands a week ago and shut out the Giants.  Could the Bears do that?

In a word, hell no. 

Panthers win, 12-5.

We've caught wind of a rumor that a player from one of the playoff teams recently was involved in a legal scrape that has been kept under wraps by local authorities given the pending postseason games.

We know the team involved but not the player.  We'll keep the identity of the team under wraps until we can corroborate or debunk this one.

Stay tuned.

FOX reports that Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander will not return to action on Saturday after suffering a concussion in the first half of the team's playoff game against the Redskins.

It's possible that Alexander's career in Seattle is over.  If the Redskins win the game and knock the No. 1 seed in the NFC out of the postseason tournament, Alexander will be six weeks or so away from unrestricted free agency. 

Alexander, the NFL's MVP, signed a one-year deal with the Seahawks prior to the 2005 season.  As part of the package, the team agreed not to use the franchise or transition tag to restrict his movement in 2006.

We've previously reported that the Seahawks were reluctant to sign Alexander to a long-term deal during the 2005 season, because the team feared that he would lose the edge that was propelling him to one of the best seasons for a running back in the history of the league. 

Now that he's poised to hit the market, Alexander might decide to go to the highest bidder, whoever it might be.

Teams who might make a play for Alexander include the Jets, Ravens, Colts (if Edgerrin James leaves), Titans, Packers, Cardinals, and 49ers.

Contrary to published reports that Dolphins offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is now the front runner for the head coaching job in St. Louis, we're hearing that the guy on whom the team actually is focusing is Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. 

Chris Mortensen of ESPN says that Linehan had an "impressive interview" this week.

So if the Rams like him so much, why don't they marry him?

The fact that Linehan hasn't been hired means that, in our view, he's really not the guy.  The guy is with a team that is still playing (the Bears) and the guy is likely to be hired not long after the Bears play their final game.

We're not saying that Mort's info is wrong.  Our guess is that the team might be trying to get the word out that Linehan is a solid candidate in order to leverage a better contract with Rivera, especially since the team is on the hook for more than $3 million to former coach Mike Martz if, as it appears, Martz doesn't get an NFL gig for 2006.

It's no different than the team with the top pick in the draft negotiating with multiple players, just as the 49ers did last year. 

Assume that we're right (we know it's hard to do), and that the Rams prefer Rivera.  But if they can get Linehan for $1.5 million a year and Rivera digs in at $2.5 million, it might be enough to make a difference.

Of course, Rivera first must believe that the Rams are serious about Linehan in order for the ploy to work.  Thus, the Rams put out misinformation regarding their interest in Linehan, and suddenly Rivera might not be inclined to drive such a hard bargain.

Besides, why would the team with a Greatest Show on Turf hangover hire a guy with less of a resume than Martz had at the time he was hired?  Sure, Linehan did fairly well in three seasons as Vikings' offensive coordinator.  But the fact that Linehan didn't even merit an interview in Minnesota sends a subtle (to say the least) message about whether the team that knows him better than any other NFL franchise regards him as Penske material.

And don't forget that there were rumors that Linehan was on the outs this year with his current boss, Fins coach Nick Saban.  Although the offensive attack got turned around late in the season, we've heard that it happened only because Saban got more involved.

Of course, we might be wrong on this.  Maybe Linehan is the guy. 

And maybe they haven't hired him yet because they want to give him the least amount of time possible to assemble a staff.

Acting swiftly to prevent G.M. Marv Levy from attempting to inject himself into the mix for the head coaching vacancy in Buffalo after interviewing a collection of "interesting names" (i.e., unqualified slapdicks), Bills owner Ralph Wilson said Saturday that Levy will not be the head coach of the team.

"Marv and I entered into an agreement initially that made him the General Manager of the Bills," Wilson said.  "He was hired to be GM and would never coach the team.  We are excited to have Marv as our General Manager as we move forward in hiring a new head coach."

Levy, this time around, agreed with his boss.  "In order to clear up any misunderstanding from my comments at Friday's press conference regarding the position of head coach for the Buffalo Bills, I want to say unequivocally that I am here to serve as the General Manager/Football Operations.  At the press conference announcing the resignation of Mike Mularkey we were prepared to talk about that issue only and therefore I was not prepared to talk about any coaching candidates at that time.  I regret that I was not more specific in stating that I will not be serving in a coaching capacity.  I am excited about my new responsibilities as General Manager and, as planned, will devote my full energies to that role."

Despite what they're saying now, we heard from multiple league sources on Saturday that Levy's plan was to go through the motions of the interviews and then lobby Wilson on the notion that Levy is the best candidate available.

On Friday, Wilson said that Levy was "absolutely not" a candidate to coach the team.  But when Levy got a chance to talk, he said:  "We're going to conduct interviews and go forth.  What am I going to do, say 'No, I'm not as good a coach as another guy?'  I can't answer it because I want to talk the whole situation over, but I can say we're going to address it swiftly and come up with answers."

And address it swiftly they did, with Levy's plan being scuttled before it could even get off the ground.

Earlier on Saturday (scroll down for more), we wrote that the Bills will have some "interesting names" on their list of candidates for the vacancy created when coach Mike Mularkey abruptly quit this week.

We're now beginning to figure out why.

Per a league source, G.M. Marv Levy's plan is to interview the candidates and then argue to owner Ralph Wilson that none of them would be better than Levy himself.  To bolster his contention, Levy needs an outside-the-box group of candidates that will seem progressive and daring -- but that will pale in comparison to the guy who took the team to four straight Super Bowl appearances.

Levy still faces a tall order in this regard.  On Friday, owner Ralph Wilson said that Levy won't be a candidate for the position.  Even if Wilson changes his mind from "absolutely not" to "absolutely maybe," Levy will still have to persuade the man who's beginning to look a lot like Yoda that Levy is a better choice for the job than former Bills Pro Bowler Jim Haslett.

The overriding problem here is that Levy's plan will require a couple of weeks, at least, to unfold.  By then, it'll be very hard for the new coach, whoever it might be, to put together a staff of assistant coaches.

MULARKEY DECISION FUELED BY STAFF CONCERNS

Speaking of the challenges of putting together a coaching staff, we're hearing that one of the big reasons for Mike Mularkey's decision to quit the job in Buffalo was his inability to find someone/anyone who was interested in replacing the various coaches who were recently fired by the Bills.

With openings at offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, defensive line coach, linebackers coach, and defensive backs coach, Mularkey was swinging and whiffing in his efforts to fill the jobs. 

A big part of the problem is that Mularkey was seen as being under a one-year, playoffs-or-else mandate, and guys with other options aren't going to choose to uproot their families for what could be a twelve-month stay in Western New York.  In fact, we've heard that some of the candidates didn't even return Mularkey's calls.

So maybe the "family considerations" Mularkey cited when quitting were accurate, after all.  If he had stayed, he might have been forced to put the wife and kids to work on the defensive side of the ball.

SOUP NAZI LOBBYING FOR LEWIS

Giants coach Tom Coughlin isn't such a bad guy after all.  As it turns out, he's trying his best to help defensive coordinator Tim Lewis get hired as a head coach.

Of course, the Soup Nazi's ultimate motivation, as we hear it, is that he wants Lewis out of New York.

We'd heard a couple of months back that Coughlin might just fire Lewis after the season, and it's possible that Coughlin still might do it after the dust settles on the coaching carousel.  Two years ago, Lewis was fired by the Steelers even though he was a candidate to become the next coach of the Falcons.

Word is that Coughlin wants to hire former Texans coach Dom Capers to take over the Giants defense.  Capers previously worked for Coughlin in Jacksonville, after Capers was fired as coach of the Panthers.

SOME WANT GRIMM TO GET THE JOB IN DETROIT

This new sense of altruism displayed by Tom Coughlin isn't confined to New York.  Several league insiders also are pulling for the Detroit Lions to hire Steelers offensive line coach Russ Grimm.

The reasoning?  As one league source put it, "It would make two teams worse."

Specifically, the Steelers would lose a guy who has been a very good offensive line coach, and the Lions would get a guy who simply isn't ready to be a head coach.

ESPN's John Clayton reports that Lions CEO Matt Millen is bringing back several candidates for a meet-and-greet with the Ford family.  Grimm is expected to be one of the invitees, if the Steelers lose to the Colts on Sunday.

We pretty much suck at picking games.  Or, to be more precise, we suck at remembering to make a note in this here space of the picks on which we're ultimately right -- and we're great at remembering to mention in this space the picks on which we're ultimately wrong.

We've seen the stats and heard the hype about the power of the home teams in the divisional round.  As explained earlier this week by USA Today, only 18 percent of the visitors have won at this level under the current format.

That's 49 wins and 11 losses for the home teams.

Still, even though the home team wins in the divisional round more than four out of five times on average, we think that the numbers are a bit misleading.

In the years prior to the onset of free agency and the salary cap (1990 through 1992), there was a real difference in talent level between the teams that earned a bye and the teams that didn't.  Over those three seasons, the home teams were 11-1, with the only loss coming by the Steelers at home to the Bills in 1992.  Throwing out those three years puts the home teams at 38 and 10, which equates to a road team win rate of nearly 23 percent -- or roughly one road victory per year in the divisional round.

The best year for the visitors came in 2003, with the Colts winning at Kansas City, the Panthers winning at St. Louis, and the Pats and Eagles holding serve at home by only three points each.

This weekend, we think the road teams will finish the job, capping the first four-game sweep by the house guests since the current format was installed. 

How far out onto a limb are we venturing here?  Since the AFL-NFL merger, the road teams have never won more than two of the four conference semifinals in any year.

Damn, we're starting to talk ourselves out of this one. . . .

The hell with it.  We're sticking to our guns.  At least for Saturday.  We'll revisit our feelings on the road teams' chances after we see how the first two games pan out. 

One last note.  Don't rule out an overtime game or two.  In the past four years, there have been four sudden-death finishes at this level, and three in the past two seasons.

Redskins at Seahawks:  Plenty of sphincters will be puckering in the Pacific Northwest as the Seahawks try not to screw up one of the best seasons in franchise history.  Beyond that attractive image, here's why the 'Skins will win.

First, the 'Hawks had a very tough time in two home games this year against NFC East teams (Cowboys and Giants) who weren't playing nearly as well as the Redskins are right now.  Seattle easily could have (and arguably should have) lost either or both of those games.

Second, the 'Skins already have beaten the Seahawks.  Sure, it was in Washington.  But the Redskins have gotten a lot better since then, especially on defense.  For example, a guy named LaVar Arrington was still eating Alpo from a plastic bowl at the time these two teams last played.

With strong defense (edge to D.C.), a solid running game (slight edge to Seattle), and quarterback experience in the postseason (edge to D.C.) being the three biggest factors in January, the pendulum swings to the 'Skins, 23-16.

Patriots at Broncos:  This could end up being one of the best playoff games in recent years.  And if that happens, it's bad news for the Broncos.

Why?  No team knows how to show up in crunch time better than the Pats.  The players live for those moments, and quarterback Tom Brady is arguably the best ever at staying calm when it matters most (with only his boyhood idol, Joe Montana, at or above his level in this regard).

So the Broncos can win this one only if they race to a big lead early and force the Pats to play from behind.  But do they have the horses to do it?  Though the coaching staff has plenty of experience in big games, the current roster of players doesn't sport a bunch of guys who have proven that they can get it done when it matters most.

Looking at the the defense, running game, and quarterback experience factors, we'll give the edge to the Pats in a nail-bleeder, 28-26.

Though former Bills Pro Bowl linebacker Jim Haslett is regarded as the favorite to replace recently former Bills coach Mike Mularkey, we're told that the list of candidates has some "interesting names" on it.

We've don't know any of the supposedly "interesting names" at this point, but we're working on it.

For now, we'll throw a few of the "interesting names" possibly identified by the dyspeptic duo of Ralph Wilson and Mary Levy in the hopes that, through dumb luck (emphasis on the "dumb"), we'll get one or two of them right.

Jim Kelly.  Mike Ditka.  Deion Sanders.  Jim Mora.  Frank Reich.  Vince Lombardi.  Matt Millen.  Chris Berman.  Scott Norwood.  The guy Levy once called an "overofficious jerk."  Tim Russert.  Donald Trump.

Stay tuned.      

A day after characterizing the knee injury suffered by Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer as the equivalent of a chicken wing being torn apart by a tailgater, Dr. Lonnie Paulos has changed his tune more abruptly than Paul Anka/Quiet Riot medley.

"I would consider this a typical ACL-MCL football injury," Paulos said on Friday.

On Thursday, however, the injury was a four on a scale of one to three, and "devastating and potentially career-ending."

So what gives? 

As we explained on Thursday night, the doctor was out of line.  He wanted to set himself up as the hero if Palmer recovers fully, while at the same time protecting him from being the goat if Palmer doesn't.

That the initial comments of Paulos might have been, you know, the truth doesn't matter.  The Bengals, after all, have swept under the FieldTurf a turdish tantrum of Chad Johnson at halftime of Sunday's loss.  Why not also ignore the possibility that their franchise quarterback might never be the same?

Still, it was wrong for Paulos to run his mouth.  Wrong, but as it turns out not illegal.  Several readers raised with us the question of whether the statements of Paulos invaded Palmer's privacy rights.  We're told, however, that Paulos was authorized to talk about the injury and the surgery.

Little did he know that he was expected to weave a little PR into his efforts from the OR.

NFC EAST ONE-LINERS

(Editor's note:  With the whole Chad Johnson brouhaha and other major stories this week, we've fallen behind on our presentation of news from around the league in the form of short blurbs with oft-snide remarks.  Our goal is to get caught up this weekend on a division-by-division basis.  We'll start with the NFC East.)

Cowboys offensive coordinator Sean Payton has interviewed for the Saints head coaching job (and he called Bill Parcells during a break in the session to ask permission to take a pee). 

It's time to start the annual bitching about a Canton bias against the Cowboys.

Four Cowboys have had surgery since the end of the 2005 season.

Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer was interviewed by the Rams.

Eagles coach Andy Reid refused to release any of his assistants for positions on Brad Childress's staff in Minnesota.

The Eagles won't raise ticket prices in 2006 (but a cup of beer will cost $37 bucks and there's a $10 cover charge for the restrooms).

Isn't Fins TE Randy McMichael criticizing Eagles WR Terrell Owens roughly the same thing as a pile of dog poop complaining about the smell coming from the outhouse?

The eye in the sky don't lie (or spew saliva at unsuspecting passersby).

Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren almost took a job on Joe Gibbs's staff after the 1988 Super Bowl.

The felony trial of Redskins S Sean Taylor has been bumped to March even though prosecutors resisted a continuance beyond January 17.

Giants defensive coordinator Tim Lewis was interviewed on Friday by the Jets (first question -- "C'mon, you didn't really think Terrell Buckley could cover Steve Smith, did you?").

The Giants plan to pay QB Eli Manning a $5 million bonus to extend his contract through 2009 (maybe they would have extended it through 2013 if he'd thrown a couple more interceptions last weekend).

The Giants plan to commence talks next week on a new contract with DT Kendrick Clancy.

Bucs CB Ronde Barber, the identical twin of Giants RB Tiki Barber, criticized the Giants' defensive game plan against the Panthers (or was it merely Tiki wearing a T-shirt that said "My Brother Is The Real MVP, And He's Even Prettier Than Me"?).

Giants WR Amani Toomer thinks his time in New York is over.

As we continue to scrutinize the credentials of new Packers head Mike McCarthy, who hardly could have been characterized as a hot candidate for any head coaching jobs north of the Tony Mandarich Middle School, we're wondering whether a real-world phenomenon known as protecting one's turf contributed to the decision of G.M. Ted Thompson to pull the trigger on McCarthy.

It's no secret that some coaches are drawn to the possibility of grabbing power.  In an organization with a strong G.M., a coach with such aspirations could cause serious problems.

And it can come in many forms.  Several years ago, for example, Jets coach Herm Edwards undermined G.M. Terry Bradway by simply refusing to use the guys Bradway had signed.  Also, although the Packers don't have a true owner, there are plenty of Board members with whom an ambitious coach can try to curry favor in order to carry more clout.   

In McCarthy, however, Thompson gets a head coach who is merely happy to be in the job that he has.  Actually, McCarthy should be tinkled ten shades of fluorescent pink. 

In six seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator, his teams have been to the playoffs one time.  It's hardly the fast track to the "A" list.

So McCarthy will never display his gratitude by dissing Thompson, overtly or otherwise. 

Think back four years.  Rich McKay was the G.M. of the Bucs.  Ownership wanted to hire Jon Gruden, who at the time was coaching the Raiders.  McKay wanted Marvin Lewis, a defensive coordinator who had yet to get an opportunity at the next level.

We believed at the time, and still believe today, that McKay wanted Lewis because Lewis would respect McKay's territory -- and that McKay didn't want Gruden because McKay knew that Gruden would try to grab power.

And grab power Gruden did, rendering McKay an empty suit until he left for Atlanta.

Want more proof that Thompson was looking for a guy who would defer to the G.M.?  Of the seven candidates he interviewed, only one has experience as an NFL head coach -- Chargers defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.  And Phillips hasn't been a head coach since 2000.  (He had a cup of coffee with the Falcons in 2003, after Dan Reeves got the boot.)

We're not knocking McCarthy.  We've never believed that success as a coordinator translates to success as a head coach.  Whether relative mediocrity does remains to be seen.

But one thing Thompson won't have to worry about is loyalty.  McCarthy will be a very good soldier, and Thompson will get plenty of credit and praise, likely from McCarthy himself, if things turn around for the Pack.

If they don't, then McCarthy can take the blame.  It's the least he can do for the guy who gave him a chance that, objectively speaking, he didn't deserve.

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Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal reports that Texas quarterback Vince Young has indeed signed with agent Major Adams of Houston.  Mullen also reports that agent Bus Cook will not have an official role in the representation, but that he "may informally advise" Adams as to the negotiation of Young's rookie deal. 

We're told that Cook deliberately is keeping a low profile on Young due to concerns that another one of his clients, Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler, might sever ties with Cooks due to the inherent competition between Young and Cutler on draft day.  Cutler was the 2005 SEC Player of the Year, and some think that his stock will rise dramatically in the run up to the April 29 draft.

Also, Mullen's report should put to rest rumors of Young changing his mind and returning to the Longhorns for his senior season.  Signing with an agent is, as a practical matter, the NCAA's version of the Rubicon; there's simply no way that Young would be able to play college ball in 2006 now that his name is on a rep agreement.

NFLPA records reflect that Adams has negotiated one contract.  We're told that he recently has signed safety Michael Lewis of the Eagles, but that Adams did not negotiate his contract.  With the addition of Young, then, it appears that Adams has tripled his client base.

We're also told that there is no actual family relationship between Adams and Young, but that Young regards Adams as an uncle.

That relationship could be tested when the time comes for Adams to deal with the inherently complex and high-stakes terms of a top-five contract.  Three years ago, Texans receiver Andre Johnson signed with a relative no name in order to save on agent fees.  In Johnson's case, the consensus in league circles is that the team didn't take advantage of his agent's inexperience.

This time around, it could be different.  Although precedent suggests that the Texans would be fair with Young, the agent for the No. 1 overall pick doesn't have the benefit of a ceiling under which to fit his contract -- so "fair" will be far tougher to define. 

And if Young is taken by the Titans at No. 3, the agent needs to be able to persuade G.M. Floyd Reese to give due credence to the curve-busting deal signed in the No. 3 slot by receiver Braylon Edwards a year ago.  Indeed, we've heard from multiple teams that, just as the No. 4 spot was considered to be the kiss of death in 2005 due to Philip Rivers' deal from the four hole in 2004, the Titans are in a tough spot at No. 3, given the player-friendly terms of Edwards' rookie contract.

Of course, by then it's more likely that Cook will be able to get involved in the negotiations with Adams after the draft, since Young and Cutler no longer will be in competition and since, in theory, it will be in Cutler's interests at that point for Young to get the best deal possible in his own slot.  Assuming that Cook helps the Titans work out a new deal for another one of his clients, quarterback Steve McNair, the Titans might be more likely to cooperate with Cook on Young's deal.

At the press conference announcing the decision of coach Mike Mularkey to resign, new G.M. Marv Levy suggested that he might be a candidate to take over.

Owner Ralph Wilson, however, didn't get the memo.  "Absolutely not," Wilson said when asked if Levy would be a candidate for the job.

It's good to see that everyone is on the same page in Buffalo.

We're also hearing conflicting reports on whether Levy and Wilson specifically engineered the resignation of Mularkey in order to avoid responsibility for the three remaining years on Mularkey's contract.  Some league sources say they did, others insist they didn't -- and that Mularkey's decision really was a shock to Wilson and Levy.

The talk in league circles this morning that Bills owner Ralph Wilson and new G.M. Marv Levy opted not to fire coach Mike Mularkey, but to instead bust the whipper-snapper's balls until he walked away on his own.

The reason?  They wanted him out, but they didn't want to have to pay him for the final three years of his contract.

And the prime target to replace him, we're told, is former Bills Pro Bowler Jim Haslett.  

Of course, there's only one minor glitch in that regard.

The Rooney Rule, which requires at least one minority candidate to be interviewed for each head coaching vacancy.

Maybe that's why defensive coordinator Jerry Gray wasn't fired last week with the rest of his staff.  Maybe Wilson wants to interview Gray for the head coaching job . . . and then fire him.  Or maybe Gray gets consideration to remain with the team as part of Haslett's staff if Gray agrees to interview for the vacancy.

And maybe that's why former Bills defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell is also being mentioned as a possible candidate for the job.

Regardless of how anyone feels about the Rooney Rule, the reality is that it must be complied with.  Wilson, however, recently shrugged off the league's stated preference that the spirit of the rule also be applied when hiring a General Manager.  The only man considered for that job in Buffalo was Levy.

The other potential glitch in the Wilson and Levy plan is that Haslett is getting genuine consideration for vacancies with the Lions and the Jets, where some league insiders believe that the supposed leading candidates (Russ Grimm and Eric Mangini, respectively) really aren't.  Thus, by waiting a week to clear out Mularkey in order to save a few bucks, it's possible that Wilson and Levy have made it harder (and more expensive) to get the guy they apparently want.  

A league source tells us that Texas quarterback Vince Young likely will be hiring a relatively unknown agent to handle his rookie contract.  Per the source, Major Adams of Houston will be Young's agent.  Adams supposedly is an uncle of Young's.

Per the NFLPA records, Adams has one other client with an active NFL contract.

And although multiple sources tell us that Bus Cook is not in the running to represent Young, we hear that Cook will be "supervising" Adams in the complex negotiations that routinely occur at the top end of the draft.

We don't know whether Young officially has signed with Adams.  There were rumors earlier in the week that Young might change his mind about entering the draft, and return to school for his final season of eligibility.  We've heard nothing firm in this regard.

There's a feeling in league circles that Dr. Lonnie Paulos should have kept his piehole clamped shut regarding the severity of the knee injury suffered by Carson Palmer.

According to The Associated Press, Dr. Paulos called the injury "devastating and potentially career-ending." 

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