PFT PRESEASON POWER RANKINGS:  NO. 5

We're gradually getting deeper into the "pulling it out our butt" mode, because it's virtually impossible at this early stage of the season to predict the manner in which the NFL campaign will unfold.  Injuries, as we've previously said, are a big factor in who will rise to the top -- and who will plummet to the bottom.

Plus, we've always said that confidence begets confidence, and a team that gets hot is more likely to stay hot (and as a result improve on the fly) as the season progresses.

For now, though, we've got our opinions as to how the teams stack up, and it's time to finger the No. 5 franchise.

The Indianapolis Colts.

After getting off to a 13-0 start in 2005, the wheels went square for the Colts last season.  They lost a tough one at home to the Chargers, who in smashing the Colts in the chops might have given the Steelers the cheat sheet for doing so in January.  Then, coach Tony Dungy's son died, casting a dark cloud over the team that likely never lifted.

Taking a 14-2 record into the postseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers stole one in an epic playoff contest that will be remembered with warm smiles in Western Pennsylvania -- and four-letter words in Indiana.

The biggest loss in the offseason, by far, was running back Edgerrin James, a workhorse who moved the chains and picked up blitzers for seven seasons.  Without him in 2001, after he blew out an ACL, the Colts were a far different team.  The jury is still out on whether his departure will hurt them significantly.

We think it will keep them from winning a Super Bowl, but not from being an elite team.  The defense is getting better each year, and the emergence of Reggie Wayne as a solid complement to Marvin Harrison will make up for the loss of James. 

Still, the challenge will be to keep the rush off of the slow-footed Manning, who moves like a stork on skates from a dead stop.  And the blitzes will be coming, unless and until the Colts can show that they're able to counter them.

On defense, the loss of defensive tackle Larry Tripplett should be offset by an improved Corey Simon, who lost some weight and who has had a full offseason of work with the team.

Yeah, Manning is still Manning.  And maybe Dominic Rhodes and/or Joseph Addai will from time to time make some plays at tailback.  But how can anyone expect that this team will get any farther without Edgerrin James than they have made it with him? 

So why didn't they try to keep James, you ask?  The problem is that many teams are leery about making huge financial investments in veteran tailbacks, given the possibility that, as they get closer to 30, the chances of chronic injury and/or just becoming a "guy" increase significantly.  And with the Cardinals willing (and, from a salary cap standpoint, able) to give James so much money, there's no way that the Colts could have competed.

We're not saying that Rhodes and Addai can't eventually get it done, but it's going to take a while before the franchise can get past the heights that James helped them reach.

Now, for the fantasy grades.

Quarterback:  Peyton Manning's numbers dipped a bit in 2005 as the Colts focused more on defense and ball control.  But with Edgerrin James gone, Manning will get back to his ball-chucking ways of 2004.  Here's a caveat -- as more teams put bodies on Peyton, an injury could be inevitable.  For now, though, Manning is an A+ option.

Running back:  This is a position to avoid in Indy, since it's not clear whether Dominic Rhodes or Joseph Addai will get the bulk of the reps.

Wide Receiver:  The reception and yardage numbers for Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were virtually identical in 2005, with Harrison holding the edge in yards and Wayne snagging one more catch.  The big difference was in the end zone; Harrison had 12, and Wayne had only five.  Even in 2004, when Wayne outgained Harrison by nearly 100 yards, Harrison had three more touchdowns.  This year, we have a feeling that Wayne will emerge as the top producer in each category, as he hits his prime and as Harrison eases closer toward the back end of his career.   We give Wayne an A- and Harrison a B+.

Tight end:  Dallas Clark is pretty good as tight ends go, but he doesn't generate the kind of stats that make him an attractive target.  C-.

Defense:  The Colts' defense was on the fringes of the top ten in yards and turnovers in 2005.  But with Indy likely to be throwing more in 2006, there will be shorter drives and more time on the field for the "D".  They're likely to be in the crapshoot category this year.

Kicker:  Adam Vinatieri is a clutch kicker on a team that will give him plenty of chances to score.  A.