POSTED 11:22 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2006

LORD FAVRE (YAWN) IS COMING BACK

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports that Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre informed the team on Tuesday that he'll be returning for the 2006 season.

Anyone who has been coming to this site for the past month or so knows that this is old news.  Indeed, we've just heard from our original source regarding the "Favre is returning" story that the more accurate characterization of the development is that Favre gave the team permission on Tuesday to announce publicly that which the organization already has known.

Though we never could quite figure out Favre's motivation for telling the team that he was coming back but not officially granting the team authority to say so, the simple reality could be that (as former teammate Mark Chmura suggested a few weeks back) Favre likes the attention. 

And plenty of it he got.

At one point, we concluded that Favre's public questioning of the team's failure to make a splash in free agency was aimed at securing for himself a no-lose proposition in  2006.  If the team sucks, he gets no blame.  If the team is good, he gets all of the credit.  So even though the chances of pulling an Elway are low, climbing back to the top of an undermanned NFC North could, given the low level of expectations, provide the same kind of feel-good final chapter to Favre's career.

Indeed, what has the team done since Favre's April 8 presser about nothing, where he called for the team to sign an impact free agent?  Under his own stated reasoning, he rightly should have quit.

Frankly, we doubted our report that Favre was returning only once, in the wake of that press conference.  But our source promptly informed us that the Packers had given the NFL specific assurances that Favre would be back before the NFL handed the team three prime time appearances in 2006.

And with the expectations now appropriately lowered in Green Bay, allow us to be the first to predict that the Packers won't be as bad as most pundits presume they will be.  We'll predict at least a 9-7 record in Favre's final season, with an outside shot at a playoff berth.

POSTED 9:11 p.m. EDT; LAST UPDATED 11:03 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2006

NEW CBA CAPS GUARANTEED ROOKIE MONEY

As anyone who has been frequenting this site for, say, a week well knows, we're not afraid to admit when we are wrong.  (It's good to be the boss.  What am I going to do, cut myself?)

Earlier on Tuesday, we threw a handful of pig poo at John McClain of the Houston Chronicle for his seemingly implausible (and homerish) suggestion that there's no way that the Texans can pay the No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft that same $24 million in guaranteed coin that quarterback Alex Smith received from the 49ers as the first selection in 2005.

Although under the penultimate year of the old CBA and the first year of the new CBA the signing bonus proration is five years, the difference is that the maximum length of contracts for the top half of round one has been cut from seven years to six. 

Based on in-depth discussions with multiple agents who have negotiated high first-round picks, we have figured this thing out.  We think.  And at the risk of being called "nerds" by Ricky Manning and his posse (and then, of course, being beaten with one or more shoes), allow us to venture into the nuts and bolts of this one. 

The problem arises from the rule that prevents teams from increasing the base salary (i.e., all of the money paid except the signing bonus) of the rookie by more than 25 percent of the first-year value in any later year.

Case in point, Smith's deal had a $1 million signing bonus, counting $200,000 against the 2005 cap.  (The signing bonus was low precisely because of this issue.)  The rest of Smith's $2.7 million rookie cap number came from a $500,00 salary and a $2 million roster bonus.

So based on $2.5 million in non-signing-bonus money paid in year one, the salary could climb by only $625,000 each year. 

Because the new CBA calls for only a five-percent increase in the 2006 rookie pool (which is very low given the 20 percent bump in the salary cap), the 2006 allotment for the No. 1 pick will be $2.835.  Assuming that he receives no signing bonus but instead gets a combination of minimum base salary ($275,000) and roster bonus ($2.56 million), the maximum earnings in 2007 will be $3.54375 million.

Increasing each subsequent year by the maximum of $708,750, the total take through five years -- and as we understand it the maximum that can be guaranteed -- would be $21.2625 million. 

Apparently, the guaranteed amount can't be pushed any higher than $21.2625 million because the sixth year is the extra season triggered by the option bonus paid in year two.  (We'll try to get more specifics on the reasons for this, since it appears that a player could choose to pass on an option bonus and take a guaranteed salary in year six of $6.37875 million, getting the total guaranteed money -- if all base salaries are guaranteed -- to more than $27.5 million.)  

But the bigger point to keep in mind here is that there are other ways to funnel money to players that is essentially guaranteed, regardless of the operation of the 25 percent rule.  Alex Smith's deal featured a ton of guaranteed money, but Braylon Edwards' contract had less guarantees but a big chunk of reasonably achievable incentive payments. 

And that's why, we're told, only the Texans currently are wrestling with this issue.  They are the team working off of Smith's deal, which had the $24 million in guaranteed money.  The other deals at the top of round one had less in guarantees, but more in incentives.

But regardless of structure, the high-end rookies will still be handsomely paid, whether through guaranteed money or through so-called "falling off of a log" payments triggered by minimum playing time.

And as to the McClains point that it's "impossible" to have more than roughly $21 million, he's technically wrong.  If a team chooses not to sign one or more of its other draft picks, the money otherwise paid to them in year one could be paid to the first-rounder, increasing above $2.83 million the basis for the application of the 25 percent rule.

Confused?  Good.  Think about that the next time you're inclined to complain one of the more comprehensible stuff that also happens to be made up.

IN DEFENSE OF MATHIAS

In response to our piece from earlier on Tuesday regarding guys that are or may be falling on draft boards, we've heard from one scout who strongly disagrees with the information we'd gathered regarding Boston College defensive lineman Mathias Kiawanuka.

"There is no chance that he gets out of the second round," says the source.  "I’d bet my house and car.   He has slipped, no question.   But to have him rated as a fourth-rounder is sheer lunacy. . . . To deflate a guy to the second day because he got blocked by [D'Brickashaw] Ferguson in the Senior Bowl is the height of stupidity. 

"The guy is 6’5, 250 lbs, runs a 4.7 and has 40 career sacks.  He’ll be a good, not great, pro."

For the record, the source agrees with us as to the other five sliders that we listed.

AGNONE PASSED ON CHANCE TO JOIN IMG?

There's a rumor making the rounds that, in an effort to resurrect a football practice decimated by the departure of Tom Condon, Ken Kremer, and virtually every other employee of the division, IMG has approached Tony Agnone regarding the possibility of either purchasing his firm, EAS, or of hiring him to run the NFL operation.

Word is that Agnone has declined.

Stay tuned for plenty of developments in the agent business.  With Creative Artists Agency swallowing up IMG's former football group, look for more Hollywood talent agencies to try to get into the NFL business.

TUESDAY NIGHT ONE-LINERS

No re-entry for the Whizzinator.

L.A. will pitch to the NFL next week its plan for an $800 million upgrade to the Coliseum.

The 49ers intend to use the No. 6 pick in the draft (they might want to consider the performance of the guys taken with the sixth selection over the past several years before doing so).

NASCAR driver Matt Kenseth (whoever that is) wants Lord Favre to poop or get off the pot.

The Lions have spent seven straight first-round picks on offensive players.

The Vikings have hired George Toma to work on the team's practice fields (Fran Foley says he taught Toma everything he knows).

EA Sports is launching a Matt Leinart blog for the week leading up to the draft.  (But will the expletives be deleted as each team passes on Matt?)

FOX plans to introduce some innovations for its coverage of the BCS.  (Maybe they'll use a graphic with a tally of the total money that each player has pocketed from agents, boosters, and other well-wishers.) 

The St. Louis radio host who used a racial epithet while discussing Condoleezza Rice's possible interest in becoming the NFL Commissioner is back on the air.

The Senior Bowl is ready for its close up.

The Bears have sent S Mike Green to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick.

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis will decide after the weekend whether to switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4.

Stop the presses!  The Steelers won't draft a quarterback in round one.

POSTED 8:03 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2006

RICKY GETS BOUNCED FOR A YEAR

The Miami Dolphins have responded to the news that running back Ricky Williams lost his appeal of his fourth violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy.  Under the ruling, Williams will be suspended for at least one calendar year.  Thereafter, he will be permitted to apply for reinstatement.

"This is a league decision, and we are disappointed in what it means for Ricky and the team," said coach Nick Saban in a statement released by the team.  "Ricky did an outstanding job for the Dolphins, not only as a player but also what he added as a person to the team's chemistry and to our overall success.  I know I speak for all of his teammates and the entire Dolphin organization in supporting him in any way we can in his future endeavors."

Said Ricky, per the team:  "I'm disappointed with the decision but I respect it.  I'm proud of my association with the National Football League and look forward to returning to the Dolphins in 2007."

Compare the two statements, and pay particular attention to Saban's final words --  " . . . in his future endeavors."  In our opinion, that's code for, "It's over.  We're done.  Nice knowin' ya.  Get the hell out."

Technically, Williams' contract tolls, meaning that the Fins hold his rights for two more seasons, at $585,000 and $670,000.

Williams also owes the team $8.6 million under an arbitration ruling entered against him after he abruptly retired prior to the 2004 season.  When we interviewed Saban last year, we asked him about the status of Ricky's debt to the team.

"I try to stay out of the business side, and I'm not trying to dodge the question here," Saban said.  "But the business side of some of this stuff, there's a lot of legal ramifications relative to all this, and I think these are things that are all going to have to be resolved as he continues to play.  And it's between his agent and our organization to try to do whatever is fair and equitable for whatever the consequences of all those situations are.  I haven't gotten in that arena, nor do I want to."

To date, the Fins have not released the judgment, even though it's unlikely that the team ever will recover much (if any) of the money.

Still, Williams has some football in him, if he plays for Miami or another team in 2007.  He's only 28, and he'll be 30 at the start of the 2007 season.

But his reinstatement isn't a no-brainer.  While in exile, he still must comply with the requirements of "Stage Three" of the NFL's substance abuse policy, which includes submission to testing and treatment.  In other words, if he tests positive again at any time in the next 12 months, his chances of being reinstated after one year will be diminished.

If Ricky had $8.6 million, we'd suggest against letting it ride on whether he'll make it that far.

POSTED 2:53 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2006

BUSH HAD AGREEMENT WITH NEW ERA?

In what could be the next big step toward a finding that USC tailback Reggie Bush was ineligible for all or part of the 2005 football season and that USC knew or should have known about Bush's ineligibility, Liz Mullen of the SportsBusiness Journal reports that sworn testimony from two hearings regarding a parole violation indicates that New Era Sports & Entertainment had an agreement of some sort with Bush.

Michael Michaels and Lloyd Lake founded New Era in 2005.  Earlier this year, Lake faced the revocation of his parole from federal prison.  At one of the hearings, Lake's lawyer, Marc Carlos, testified that "Mr. Bush — or through his associates — had made some type of agreement with Mr. Lake's group."

Carlos also testified that, after Bush signed with another group, there was a dispute over "representations made by Bush and his family to Mr. Lake's group" and that "they were going to discuss potential litigation — or a settlement involving Mr. Bush's involvement with that agency."

David Caravantes, an NFLPA-certified agent who reportedly was being lined up by New Era to handle the negotiation of Bush's football contract, testified as well.  Caravantes confirmed his arrangement with New Era:  "Lloyd [Lake] and I had got together in October [2005] to start a new sports management company with Sycuan. . . .  Since October, Lloyd was a viable part of the company, helping recruit players, and in the process of merging this New Era Sports with Sycuan.  In the process of this happening, you know, it obviously hurt the company because he had some relationships with certain players who ended up not signing."

Lake gave the following testimony:  "I had a sports agency that we had formed, and we had a guy in, Winston Justice, from USC. . . .  Reggie Bush came into town.  And at that time he was going to go out with us."

The initial significance of this testimony is that it removes any credible doubt that, at some time after Bush's family moved into the house owned Michaels but before the completion of the 2005 football, Michaels was an "agent" within the meaning of the relevant NCAA bylaws.  Thus, if it ultimately is shown that Bush's family paid anything less than fair market rent after Michaels became an "agent," then Reggie was necessarily ineligible under the NCAA rules for each subsequent game.

More importantly, the reference to "potential litigation" suggest that New Era had (or at least thought it had) some type of binding commitment with Bush.  If such an agreement was reached prior to the completion of the 2005 football season, Bush was ineligible regardless of whether his mother and stepfather were paying fair value for the house owned by Michaels.

Also intriguing is Caravantes' reference not to Michael Michaels, but to his tribe -- Sycuan.  The Sycuan tribe previously has denied involvement in Michaels' sports venture.  The testimony from Caravantes potentially muddies the water.

Folks, this thing has gotten a lot uglier over the past 48 hours, and we've got a feeling that it will get uglier long before it gets un-ugly.  As more evidence of the ties between Bush and New Era is revealed, it will be harder and harder for USC to claim that it didn't know -- and shouldn't have known -- that Bush had forfeited his eligibility either by striking a deal with New Era or through the receipt of benefits from New Era by his family.

POSTED 2:24 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2006

QUALIFIER COMMITTEE IS NEARLY SET

A league source tells us that NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue has filled six of the eight seats on the committee that will determine the specific qualifications for supplemental revenue sharing.

To select the representatives on the qualifier committee, Tagliabue separated the league's 32 teams into four quartiles, based on a three-year look at revenues.  From each quartile, two teams were selected.

Through Monday, Tagliabue has filled the seats for the first, second, and fourth quartile.  The two teams from the third quartile will be announced later.

From the first quartile (i.e., the teams with the highest revenues), the Texans and Packers will be represented.

From the second quartile, the Browns and Lions are the teams invited to participate.

From the fourth quartile, the Bills and the Rams get to play Robin Hood.

The specific purpose of the committee is not to re-write the rules for basic revenue sharing, but to set the standards for participation by the low-revenue clubs in the wads of excess cash generated by the high-end franchises.  As we've previously surmised, Bills owner Ralph Wilson launched a recent P.R. and political attack against the new CBA/revenue sharing plan most likely to ensure that he'll have a voice in the process of determining the qualifications for supplemental revenue sharing.

And unless this committee creates a system with which at least 24 of the franchises are pleased, the stage will be set for a potential bloodbath when the time comes to negotiate the next extension to the CBA.  Under the term sheet that the league and the union hammered out in March, either side can cancel the existing deal two years early -- which means that this issue could be back on the table as early as late 2008.

POSTED 12:30 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2006 

STOCK HAS DROPPED FOR SIX HIGH-PROFILE PLAYERS

Although there have not yet been any final-week disclosures or developments causing one or more of the draft-eligible players with name recognition to plummet this weekend, a broader look at the past several months reveals six guys who have seen their prospects for getting drafted early decline.

This information is based on our discussions with league sources, and thus is subject to the standard possibility that someone is knocking a guy in the hopes of making sure he's available at a lower round.  In the end, where the guy is drafted is where the guy is drafted.  (How freakin' profound.)

1.  Mathias Kiawanuka, DE, Boston College.

Viewed by some as a top-five pick prior to the 2005 season, Kiawanuka will now be lucky to be selected on day one of the draft.  The perception is that Kiawanuka had his "ass whupped" at the Senior Bowl, and that he showed no leg strength or intensity.  Three teams that we know of have him rated as a fourth-rounder.  

2.  Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech.

Williams is regarded by some league insiders as a "very bad dude" -- and not in the good way.  We've heard that some teams have removed him completely from their boards.

3.  Claude Wroten, DT, LSU.

We reported on Friday, citing three league sources, that Wroten tested positive at the combine.  Although the teams know about the result, no one else in the media has made the connection between the positive result and the negative impact on his draft stock.  

Wroten also was arrested on marijuana charges earlier this year, but the charges were dropped.  To compound the problem, we're told that some teams were not enamored by his interviewing skills.

4.  Derek Hagan, WR, Arizona State.

Before the 2005 season, he consistently was viewed as one of the top receivers in the country.  His inconsistent hands are putting him in the round three range now.

5.  Dominique Byrd, TE, USC.

Byrd was seen as one of the top two tight ends before the 2005 season.  But a "brutal" pro day workout and a "lackadaisical attitude" have fueled a fall.

6.  LenDale White, RB, USC.

For anyone who has been living under a rock or, even worse, on top of one, White is this year's poster child for how not to handle the run-up to the draft.  A hamstring injury was disclosed when he showed up for his pro day workout.  He managed a total of 15 reps in the 225-pound bench press.

At one point, White was a possible top-ten pick.  Now, he'll be lucky to hear his name called by dinner time on Saturday.  White's likely response?  

"Mmmm.  Dinner."     

POSTED 12:06 p.m. EDT, April 25, 2006

STEELERS LOOKING TO SLIDE DOWN?

Although the rumor mill is churning slowly in the days before the draft, one of the rumblings that has made its way to our ever-curious ears is that the Steelers could be looking to trade out of round one on Saturday.

The Steelers currently select at No. 32.  We recently have heard that they'll likely have a shot at USC power back LenDale "I Want Candy" White, who has slipped down the draft board due to an injured hamstring and a perception that he's soft and lazy.

However, the talk is that the Steelers are instead thinking about moving back and stockpiling picks.  And this could present an opportunity to a team that is interested in moving up to get White, if he indeed gets past the Panthers at No. 27 in round one.

POSTED 7:52 a.m. EDT; LAST UPDATED 9:30 a.m. EDT, April 25, 2006

MATHIS PULLS A WINSLOW

A league source tells us that Texans receiver Jerome Mathis is sporting casts on both hands and bandages on his wrists and arms due to a recent motorcycle accident. 

The accident happened recently, and nearly a year to the day after Browns tight end Kellen Winslow auditioned for the role of Superman by flying over the handlebars after attempting a reverse wheelie.  Winslow suffered far more extensive injuries, including a torn ACL that knocked him out for the 2005 season.

Per the source, the injuries to Mathis appear to be limited to his arms.  The source added that Mathis looks like "a mummy from the elbows down" (which raises all sorts of interesting bathroom issues). 

Coincidentally, both Winslow and Mathis are represented by the Postons.

Attention all NFL players.  You are not invincible.  And you need your bodies to make your living.  So wait to do the motorcycle thing, or any other potentially dangerous activities, until after your careers are over. 

Playing pro football should be enough of a rush.  When you can't play pro football anymore, then go look for other ways to get your bodies snapped and twisted 100 different ways.

MANNING SITUATION COULD GET INTERESTING

Based on some information we picked up from a league source on Monday afternoon, we're hearing that the situation surrounding new Bears cornerback Ricky Manning Jr. could get very interesting as the week unfolds -- and as the draft approaches.

Confused?  Stay tuned for more (possibly) as the week unfolds.

Meanwhile, Manning faces charges of assault with a deadly weapon for his role in beating unconscious a man inside a Westwood Denny's.  Manning and a group of others allegedly were making fun of the man because he was working on a laptop.  On thing led to another, and then the dude was being repeatedly beaten and kicked.

There's an odd discrepancy regarding the basis for the charge of assault with a deadly weapon.  Some reports indicate that the "deadly weapon" charge arises from the fact that "he was aided by companions and because great bodily force was used."

But our buddy Howard Balzer of USA Today Sports Weekly tell us that LAPD detective Robert Lewis says that Manning was charged with assault with a deadly weapon because Manning allegedly kicked the guy . . . with shoes on.  (Apparently, this means kicking a guy unconscious in bare and/or sock feet is merely simple assault.)

In April 2002, Manning was arrested on "suspicion of assault stemming from an alleged fight outside a bar in Westwood."  A league source tells us that Manning allegedly was beating the guy in that case with a shoe.

So Manning, it seems, has a somewhat different kind of shoe fetish.

Although Manning is innocent until proven guilty, we suggest that someone advise him to display a little more sensitivity to the fact that a crime of some sort apparently was committed against a guy who was minding his own business.  Instead, Manning's quotes suggest that it's all about him.

"I was pretty down this morning because of the [arrest]," Manning said on Monday. "But when I found out I was a Chicago Bear, it brought a little light to the day."

It likely also brought a little light to the day of the alleged victim, since unlike most gangs of roaming thugs who beat the snot out of unsuspecting citizens, Manning now has sufficient assets to justify a civil lawsuit aimed at forcing him to fully compensate the alleged victim for his injuries -- and possibly to financially punish Manning for his conduct.

Finally, and in response to several e-mails we have received, neither the NFL nor the Bears can discipline Manning until he is convicted.  And the new CBA severely limits the Bears' ability to recover bonus money, if Manning ultimately misses practice or a game due to the arrest and/or ultimate conviction.

BUSH UPDATE

It's another day, so there's another fresh round of information regarding the Reggie Bush scandal.

Citing a source familiar with NCAA compliance issues, the Los Angeles Daily News reports that USC could face serious sanctions.  This contradicts a Monday report from ESPN.com's Joe Schad, who said that the Trojans likely won't land in any horse poop.

The key is whether the Trojans knew or should have known about the situation (if, of course, Bush's family was living for free or at below-market rent in the house owned by prospective marketing agent Michael Michaels).

"If, and it's a big if, USC knew or should have known about this, then anything is possible," the source told the Daily News.  "If any of the coaches or staff members knew about it and didn't do anything about it, or conducted an investigation that was faulty, that would be egregious, a potentially major violation."

But if USC ultimately is required to forfeit any of its 2005 games, the program will not have to return its cut of the Rose Bowl money.  "While schools can be forced to return revenues from the NCAA basketball tournament," the Daily News explains, "the NCAA isn't the sanctioning body for bowl games.

Still, nothing will happen in the near term, so we continue to believe that Bush gains nothing at all by talking about it.  We had a chance to eyeball his performance on ESPN and FOX's Best Mutherf--kin' Sports Show, Period (we know that's not the real title, but we like the sound of it). 

We weren't impressed by Reggie's words -- or his demeanor.

On ESPN, Bush declined to say who paid the rent for the house in which his family had been living.  On FOX, Reggie said (to a round of applause from the audience and crotch nuzzling from the hosts) that he has "nothing to hide."

Reg, if you have "nothing to hide," then why not say who paid the rent?

Another telling comment, in our view, came during the ESPN interview, when Bush said that success leads to people who might try to "latch on to you" and "get something from you."  That sounds to us like a reference to Michael Michaels, the owner of the house in which Bush's family lived, and it implies that something had been going on between the Bush bunch and Michaels before this story broke.

So what does any of this mean in the short term?  We still don't know.  If the story continue to grow as the week unfolds, there's a chance that the growing cloud over Bush's previously pristine image could be a factor in the Houston Texans' decision-making process at the No. 1 spot in the draft.  If, for example, the Texans are troubled by the manner in which Bush is handling the questions being posed to him (either by the media or, possibly, by the Texans themselves), it could be the breeze that nudges them off of the fence -- and that prompts them to pull the trigger on defensive end Mario Williams.

If nothing else, the Texans have acquired some significant leverage in their contract talks with Bush's agent, Joel Segal.  For more on this, read on.

SEGAL FACING TERMINATION IF REGGIE SLIPS?

We need to note at the outset that this item represents pure speculation on our part.  We've heard nothing to suggest that Reggie Bush is thinking about firing agent Joel Segal.  But based on currently available information, we would not be surprised -- at all -- by a decision from the Bush camp to fire Segal, if Reggie isn't the first overall selection in the draft.

Strike one for Segal, in our view, was the fact that he didn't yank Bush's family out of the house weeks if not months ago.  Plenty of folks in and around the league had heard the rumors.  Maybe Segal heard the rumors and did nothing.  Maybe he's not sufficiently "plugged in" to the business, and thus wasn't aware of the chatter.  Or maybe he was unable to persuade the Bush family to vacate the premises. 

Regardless, the end result is inexcusable.

Strike two for Segal, in our view, is his past relationship with agent David Caravantes, who admits that the owner of the house was trying to get Caravantes included in the agent selection process.  Even if (as we assume) there was no connection of any kind between Segal and Caravantes regarding Bush, the past link is the kind of thing that could make folks in the family nervous moving forward. 

Strike three for Segal, in our view, would be a decision by the Texans to pass on Bush.

The Texans likely have figured this out.  So look for the Texans to squeeze Segal even harder, in order to get Bush and Segal to agree to a team-friendly contract before the draft.

What's in it for Segal?  If the deal gets done before Saturday, Segal gets his fee.  If Bush falls and then fires Segal, the agent is only entitled to reimbursement for his time and out-of-pocket expenses.

So even if the Texans haven't decided to back off of Bush, the fact that Segal is feeling a little pinch in the collar and a little pucker in the shorts could prompt Houston to put the screws to Segal.

And if, as we've previously reported, Texans G.M. Charley Casserly is facing termination after the draft (which the Texans have denied), what better way to save his job than to get Bush signed by Saturday to a contract worth a lot less than what Segal wanted before the story of the Bush house broke?

Really, that's the only thing Casserly can do in the near term to salvage his Houston career (if he's indeed close to getting pushed out).  Whether the pick is Bush or Williams or Vince Young or anyone else won't matter to Casserly if he's not there when the season starts.  But getting Bush and Segal to sign off on a deal within the budget that owner Bob McNair has set could be the Hail Mary pass that Casserly might need.

McCLAIN MISSTATEMENT MEANT FOR MAJOR?

We realize that local beat writers often skew their coverage in favor of the teams that they cover.  It happens for a variety of reasons.  Making the team happy improves access.  Sometimes, the writer genuinely is a fan of the team, and thus is willing to help the cause.

As a result, the beat writers often will spew the team's propaganda without running the information through a healthy wave of critical analysis and/or objective fact.

We raise this point because John McClain of the Houston Chronicle makes the following statement in the paper's Tuesday edition, regarding the pay day that the No. 1 pick might expect to receive:

"Because the new collective bargaining agreement reduced the number of years over which a signing bonus can be prorated, it will be impossible for the top pick to get as much as $22 million guaranteed, compared with the guaranteed $24 million that San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith received last year."

Wrong.

Last year, the rookie deals could be prorated over five years.  This year, under the new CBA, the rookie deals can be prorated over five years.

Moreover, the salary cap in 2005 was $85 million.  In 2006, the cap is $17 million higher.  In 2007, the cap will be $109 million, at a minimum.

So from where did McClain get the notion that it will be "impossible" to guarantee $22 million to the top pick?  Most likely, from the Texans.

McClain's erroneous conclusion likely resulted from his statement that, in 2005, the bonus money paid to Smith was spread over seven years.  Given the then-looming uncapped year, however, the limit for proration in 2005 was five years. 

And we'll assume that McClain also got this piece of misinformation from the Texans, who are hoping to reduce the demands that running back Reggie Bush is making -- and who are likewise hoping not to appear unreasonable in the eyes of the local fans.

Of course, the misstatement also might have been aimed at Houston-based agent Major Adams, a relatively novice in the business.  Maybe, just maybe, the Texans are considering making a last-minute run at quarterback Vince Young, whom Adams represents.  And maybe, just maybe, the Texans think that they can pull a Jedi mind trick or two on Adams, in the hopes of getting Young to sign for a lot less than the Texans would have to pay either Bush or Mario Williams.