PRESEASON FANTASY TEN-PACK

by Matt Pitzer

Now that whatever any real preseason action we were going to see is over and all of the drama about Michael Vick is, hopefully, taper offing for a few weeks, we'll have plenty of time to discuss actual football now that kickoff between the Colts and Saints is in our sights on September 6.

It's tough to admit, but we might really have learned a few things during the preseason -- even as we tried to ignore all the scrubs.  And some of that will help in your fantasy drafts.  I'll be here every week during the season with a 10-pack of developments from the fantasy world, and what they mean for your team in the weeks ahead.

For the initial version, we'll start with the two teams who made the headlines on Monday night, including the one that that Ookie guy left behind.

1. The Falcons Might Not Be In Trouble.

I do not really care if Joey Harrington wins any games -- and his history indicates that he probably won't win too many.  But the Falcons should have a chance to post some decent stats without Michael Vick, even if their record goes up in flames.

New coach Bobby Petrino's offense will allow even somebody like Harrington to succeed; Petrino will put him in position to make plays and push the ball downfield.  Remember, the Falcons do have a pair of first-round picks at wide receiver in Roddy White and Michael Jenkins and a Pro Bowl tight end in Alge Crumpler.  Harrington will have at least a few games with solid production and multiple TD passes, as he did on Monday night.

Now, if you're counting on him to carry your team, you're nuts.  Harrington's role is as a backup in deep leagues and possible bye-week fill-in.  He will play in ideal passing conditions indoors and has matchups against teams such as Houston, New Orleans twice, and Indianapolis, which ought to give him a chance to put up some numbers.  Crumpler still is a solid tight end as he was under Vick, and Jenkins and White could be surprising early-season pickups.

2. The Bengals Will Be In More Trouble Than You Think.

Conventional thinking is to assume that the Bengals again will be among the most productive offenses in the league, with Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Rudi Johnson all being among the best players at their positions.

That probably will happen, but consider that the Bengals also have been without their two starting tackles for much of the preseason, have almost no reliable depth at running back, and are missing valuable No. 3 receiver Chris Henry for half of the season. 

Taken individually, none of those developments might be a concern.  Yet how many teams make it through a season without injury problems at quarterback, running back, or wide receiver?  Very few.  The Bengals' depth is horrendous and that will bite them at some point.  No, you will not pass on any of the big four stars in the right spot.  Just don't jump up extra high to grab them.

And, speaking of the Bengals, why do people keep stumbling over themselves to draft Johnson as the first wide receiver? Except for a five-game stretch, he was not the best receiver on his own team last year; Houshmandzadeh finished with more catches and more TDs.  You're better off waiting three rounds after Johnson goes to take Houshmandzadeh.

3. Do You Want Frank Gore or Larry Johnson?

The third pick is the worst selection to have.  You expect to draft a star there, but after LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson go, the other potential stars face big questions.  Can Larry Johnson overcome the mess that is the Chiefs' offense, can Frank Gore stay healthy, can Joseph Addai fill a full-time role for the Colts with the stats to match, and can Shaun Alexander return to his 20-TD form?

Unfortunately, the preseason has not been much help. The only real developments with those players were Gore's hand injury and the Chiefs' offense looking like it is coached by Herm Edwards (oh, wait . . .).

For my money, Gore is still the pick at No. 3.  You have to hope and pray that he doesn't get hurt again, but the way he dominated in the second half of last season hints at how productive he should be at full speed.  The 49ers might not live up to all of their preseason hype, but they should be good enough to avoid blowouts like they had last season against the Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers, and Saints.  And five more close games means more work for Gore.

Johnson won't have any more work than the 416 carries he had last season and the question is whether he breaks down this year.  He is the only good thing the Chiefs have on offense.  Yes, ending the holdout was good, but that really was the least of the concerns with him.

4. Clinton Portis Is A Pain.

By most logical standards, Portis ought to have a great season.  He is a dynamic running threat in an offense that should be ready to take off in a second year under coordinator Al Saunders and with a head coach in Joe Gibbs who loves to pound the ball.

But it might help if he were on the field once in a while.  Portis has missed virtually the entire preseason because of a knee injury.  It's silly to think that Portis needs the preseason to learn the offense or get in shape.  It also is silly to think a knee injury that has lingered so long should not be a concern.

As a result, Ladell Betts might wind up as the best running back in Washington this season. Portis has just one 16-game season out of his three with the Redskins, and you must be prepared to go after Betts if you take Portis early.  Alternately, if you don't take Portis, you can snap up Betts and put the guy who grabbed Portis in a world of trouble.

5. Randy Moss Is Just Being Randy Moss.

So Moss has sat out most of preseason and training camp because of a sore hamstring.  And you're surprised?

What is surprising is the hysteria that Moss might be milking his injury.  If we know anything about Moss, it is that he cares when he wants to care.  And the overriding theme about this preseason has been that it is more meaningless than ever.  So what else do you expect Moss to do?

He has said he is excited about the possibility of winning a title and about playing with a QB such as Tom Brady. He clearly lacked motivation in Oakland so take him at his word, for now, about playing for the Patriots. And there has not been anything yet to indicate that the injury will linger into the regular season.

When he slips into the fourth or fifth round, be sure to jump on what will be one of the steals of your draft.

6. Maybe The Ravens Got A Raw Deal.

When the Ravens traded for Willis McGahee, the common assumption was that he would be a nice upgrade over the slow, rapidly aging Jamal Lewis.  Instead, McGahee has had 14 carries for 35 yards, a robust 2.5 yards a carry.  He has looked, in short, like Lewis did last year.

Yes, it is only preseason, but it is worrisome -- especially when you look at McGahee's previous numbers, including a career average of just 3.9 yards a carry.  The problem can't be the offensive line, not when we've heard so much about the great, young talent the Ravens have put together.

And, indeed, backups Mike Anderson and Musa Smith have been running like McGahee was supposed to.  Sure, maybe he will turn out to be just fine, but if you're spending a first-round pick on the guy, you'd like to have a little more to go on.

7. Daunte Culpepper Is The Raiders' Best Option.

In a remarkable reversal considering how he was run out of Miami, Daunte Culpepper looks like he might be worth a late-round pick if he starts for the Raiders -- as he should.  He appears to quickly be picking up the offense and, combined with what looks like an improved line and a few decent receivers, there are some nice numbers to be had.

Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter will not scare too many defenses, but they are good enough to break a few plays each week, and that is just about all Culpepper needs.  The passing game will not be explosive, but Culpepper looks like he is buying into the offense and giving his receivers a chance to make plays.

And when you're late in the draft looking for a backup quarterback, why not take a chance on Culpepper instead of messing around with somebody such as the well-aged Steve McNair?

8.  And Brady Quinn Is The Browns' Best Option.

The way the Browns have handled their quarterback mess has almost been laughable, so it's no surprise that they probably will not make the right decision going into Week One.  Charlie Frye looks like the probable starter, even though going with Brady Quinn -- long holdout and all -- makes more sense.

Sure, Quinn probably would struggle early and lose a bunch of games, but is anybody expecting the Browns to make a deep playoff run?  And they do have a couple of good weapons in WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, who could emerge as solid fantasy picks by the second half of the season if Quinn started immediately.

But a couple of bad games from Frye, then a few more games for Quinn to get settled, and pretty soon you're looking at not much time for Edwards or Winslow to be effective. Without Quinn starting early, Edwards and Winslow are not going to get a bunch of scoring chances.  Slide them down accordingly.

9. Yes, The Dolphins Have Problems.

No, Ronnie Brown is not really about to lose his job to Jesse Chatman, but anybody who expects Brown to turn into a star simply because Cam Cameron rode into town isn't paying attention.

Brown is supposed to be Cameron's L.T. in Miami, but Brown has averaged just 224 carries in his two seasons with 10 total TDs and only rarely has shown the talent that made him a top-five pick.  And the Dolphins also have serious quarterback and offensive line problems.

Cameron was brought in because of his offensive mind, but 2008 could be the target for his magic, by which time John Beck and Ted Ginn Jr. might be ready to make an impact.  If somebody wants to run out and draft Brown in the first round, let him because it means another actual good pick will fall to you.  I'm not spending a high pick who has been clearly outplayed by somebody who tried to eat himself out of the league.

10. The Grossman Drama Is Overrated.

This is barely worth mentioning because Grossman is going undrafted in many leagues, based more on emotion rather than the fact that he was seventh in the league in passing TDs (23) last year.  If Grossman has an undoing, it will be turnovers. But don't get too up in arms in the preseason.

Base your decision about whether to draft Grossman on this:  His TD numbers last year, including seven multiple-TD games; the fact that he is going into just his second full season as a starting quarterback and that many young QBs have trouble with turnovers early; and the pickup of TE Greg Olsen and continued development of WR Bernard Berrian.

While the Bears' success also will depend heavily on RB Cedric Benson, Grossman should be reliably productive -- as long his turnovers don't stick him on the bench.  How many other of your backup QB candidates could have a 50-50 shot at multiple TDs in any given game?  Draft him in one of the final rounds.

Got a question for Matt?  Want to hurl insults at him?  You can reach him right here.