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PITZER'S WEEK TWO START AND SIT

BY MATT PITZER

September 14, 2007

So the first week of the season might not have been a smashing success.  Unless your lineup included Plaxico Burress, Tony Romo, and Adrian Peterson, you probably have room for improvement. 

Of course, you don't want to overreact to what did, or didn't happen, in Week One.  The Saints did not all of sudden turn into a terrible team and if you're thinking that Larry Fitzgerald is a bum now, let me get into your league.  Here are a few players you either do or don't want to start this week, as well as some you might want to give a second thought to. 

START 'EM 

Warrick Dunn. Hard to get excited about any Falcons player, isn't it?  Try coming at it from the opposite side.  The Jaguars just allowed 282 rushing yards to the Titans.  There are two alternatives.  One, the Jaguars will come back strong and shut down the Falcons this week.  Two, the Jaguars are not as good as we've thought they are.  Dunn is not a great runner any more; he usually is an okay third back, but I'm betting against the Jaguars until I see evidence to the contrary and would try to get him in the lineup. 

Philip Rivers.  It's tough to get excited about Rivers after he was essentially shut out against the Chargers last week.  But the Patriots are no Chicago; that is, they will give up points, they still are missing several key defensive pieces and then there is the whole spy-gate thing.  The Chargers have a diversified attack that can go after the Patriots' weaknesses, unlike the Jets' limited offense.  And San Diego also has a decent offensive line to protect Rivers.  If you have hesitations about playing him this week, get over them. 

Steven Jackson.  Yes, I've heard from some people who are actually thinking about sitting Jackson because he was held to 58 yards by a defense that might be a lot better than we thought and because he lost two fumbles.  Well, Jackson hit 100 yards in both of his games against the 49ers last year (without fumbling) and the 49ers allowed Edgerrin James to run for 92 yards last week, which is the equivalent of a good team's back running going for 192 yards.  So don't worry about Jackson. 

Donald Driver.  You might be a little worried about Driver after the Packers' offense failed to get in the end zone last week and Driver wound up with just six catches for 66 yards.  Thankfully, that's nothing that the Giants defense can't cure.  They gave up 45 points and four passing TDs to the Cowboys in the opener as the Giants were dealt another round of injuries on offense and defense.  The Giants' secondary is a mess, the offense will have trouble sustaining drives and QB Brett Favre will have plenty of opportunities to hit his most trusted and most reliable receiver in Driver. 

Bengals defense.  If you wound up with this unit, you probably made some kind of mistake during your draft.  But who's laughing now, right?  They follow up six turnovers and a return TD against the Ravens . . . with a trip to Cleveland.  Playing the Browns is the biggest reward for any defense these days.  Their quarterback mess appears unlikely to abate any time soon.  So what's reasonable for the Bengals?  A shutout, two defensive TDs and about eight interceptions.  Give or take.

Chris Brown.  This should be a no-brainer.  Brown had his huge 175-yard game in the opener and took over as the team's main back after LenDale White fumbled on the Jacksonville one.  The Titans love to run; they rushed for a season-high 219 yards last season against the Colts.  Despite all of the new love for the Colts defense, they still allowed over 100 yards to the Saints last week, and that was with the Saints bailing on the run after getting blown out. 

SIT 'EM 

Larry Johnson.  OK, I would not actually bench Johnson because my belief is to never sit your true studs and Johnson obviously is that.  But you had better give your expectations a serious reality check if you're depending on Johnson.  The Bears just held LaDainian Tomlinson to 25 rushing yards, they are mad about that loss and the Chiefs' offense does not compare to the Chargers' in any way except that they both put 11 players on the field.  The only good news for Johnson is that, in addition to being their best runner, he also might be their best receiver.  And that is where his only substantial stats will come this week. 

Any Jaguars receiver. David Garrard managed to throw for 204 yards in his first start since taking over for Byron Leftwich, but the only notable play was a 47-yard bomb to seventh-round pick John Broussard.  Matt Jones was shut out and Reggie Williams was inactive; both were one-time first-round picks.  The Jaguars' matchup this week against the visiting Falcons should not be too difficult, but it is tough to find a reason to start somebody like Broussard or Dennis Northcutt.

Laurence Maroney.  The Patriots face the Chargers, who allowed just 80 yards rushing to the Bears last week, but that's not the real reason to worry about Maroney.  The problem is that Sammy Morris got 11 carries to Maroney's 20 and then the Patriots brought in fullback Heath Evans for a cheap, late TD instead of giving it to Maroney.  So until we see exactly how, and how much, the Patriots intend to use Maroney in a tight game, bench him against a good opponent if you have any other reasonable choices. 

Thomas Jones.  As with Maroney, there was not much to get excited about with Jones in his opener against the Patriots.  Granted, the Jets fell behind and had to give up on the run, but Jones was not doing much before that and the team had problems with the offensive line.  Now, the Jets have to face a ticked-off Ravens defense without their starting quarterback.  Maybe Jones was simply bothered by his calf injury last week but, more likely, he will not be able to straighten out all of his problems immediately. 

Ronald Curry.  His 10 catches for 133 yards and a TD were one of the surprises of Week 1, but playing the Broncos will be more difficult.  Denver limited Buffalo to 72 total passing yards in its opener, including holding No. 1 receiver Lee Evans to just two catches for 5 yards.  Curry has to go up against CBs Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly. 

Matt Schaub.  There has been a lot of fantasy love for Schaub since the Texans drilled Kansas City in their opener, but Schaub does not look like more than a marginal backup quarterback at best.  And there is virtually no reason to think he will go into Carolina and put up a big game on the Panthers one week after Carolina held the Rams to 13 points on the road.  Because of how good Carolina's defense looks, Schaub will be lucky to match the one TD he threw last week. 

THINK ABOUT THEM 

Any Dolphins player.  Their offensive results in Week One against the Redskins were borderline putrid, and Ronnie Brown, Trent Green, and Chris Chambers all were disappointments.  This week, the Dolphins get the Cowboys, who managed to give up 35 points to the Giants, lost DT Jason Ferguson to injury, and might be without CB Terrence Newman again.  The Dolphins might actually score two TDs this week.  Brown could be your No. 2 running back and Chambers your third receiver. 

Cedric Benson. Benson donning his cap in the fourth quarter against the Chargers is the most analyzed wardrobe development of Week One as he watched backup Adrian Peterson pick up 38 yards on seven carries while Benson needed to run 19 times just to get 42 yards.  There is no hint of a running back controversy In Chicago -- yet.  And Benson certainly should be able to have a good game against the Chiefs, especially because the Bears likely will hold onto the ball for about 45 minutes of the game.  But Benson is a strange case and last week's performance certainly can't make you feel good about him against any team. 

Brandon Jackson.  He is a tempting play against the struggling Giants defense with Vernand Morency likely out for another week, but you might want to consider resisting the temptation.  Yes, the Giants are reeling after allowing 45 points last week and, yes, they might not be able to keep possession with all of their offensive injuries.  But Jackson struggled in his debut, gaining just 40 yards on 15 carries.  Maybe part of the blame belongs on the line, but the Packers also can't wait for Morency to get back -- and Morency has 618 career rushing yards in three seasons.

Kellen Clemens.  You don't really want to start Clemens this week, not on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in his first career start.  But you might want to stick him on your roster.  Remember that the Jets drafted Clemens to eventually be their starting quarterback and a reasonable showing this week, or a win, could earn him another start.  And another good game after that might mean that Pennington does not start again when he is healthy.  Or it could mean that the next time the brittle Pennington gets hurt, Clemens will stay in the lineup.  Either way, consider stashing him away. 

Santonio Holmes.  In many leagues, Holmes already is a almost an automatic start on the heels of his big opener against the Browns.  The reason, though, that Holmes is not a must-start has nothing to do with his prospects this week but instead where you drafted him.  In many cases, he was drafted as a third receiver and he might be sitting behind, say, Steve Smith and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Now, Holmes might be a good prospect against the Bills, but if you're talking about benching one of those other guys, he is not such a great bet.  Don't start Holmes simply because you were wowed by the Steelers' outburst last week. 

Darrell Jackson.  In most cases, I would still start Jackson if you're playing three wide receivers.  Even after how bad the 49ers looked at times against the Cardinals, few teams are going to have three better prospects than Jackson.  But his poor production (four catches, 36 yards) hints at a couple of problems.  First, when will the offense sync up under new coordinator Jim Hostler?  It certainly didn't happen on Monday night, when Smith had trouble pushing the ball downfield.  That lack of big plays will hurt Jackson, whose other big problem is that he looks less eager than ever to fight for balls.  The 49ers desperately need a go-to receiver to emerge and if Jackson does not fight a little harder, QB Alex Smith will lose faith in him quickly. 

Send Pitzer your thoughts, and insults, here.

 

 

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